Appear on October 27th, 2018 | by Zachary Shahan
October 27th, 2018 by Zachary Shahan
What’s the Tesla Model 3’s absolute bazaar allotment potential? What’s the abounding admeasurement of the bazaar the Model 3 is aggressive in?
These accept like aboveboard questions, but they are absolutely complicated back it comes to the Model 3. Someone gave me the abstraction of researching this added than a ages ago, but it has been added difficult to pump out a allotment on this complicated affair than I’m acclimatized to.
As we know, abounding bodies are trading in non-luxury cars for their Model 3s — the Toyota Prius, Honda Accord, Honda Civic, Nissan LEAF, and absolutely Toyota Camry and Toyota Corolla. Yes, they are additionally trading in a lot of BMWs, Audis, Acuras, and Lexuses, but the Model 3 is affairs from all over the bazaar (including auto trucks and sports cars). It’s electric, it has the coolest tech, it looks cool, and it has amazing achievement for the money — all of which are authoritative it aggressive in the college and sportier classes. But that’s absolutely not the alone classes the Model 3 is aggressive in.
The blueprint aloft was appear by Tesla afterwards this commodity was drafted, but it displays the case perfectly. Added than bisected of the cars traded in by Model 3 buyers amount beneath than $35,000 back new.
There are absolutely bodies who cannot or will not amplitude from a $19,000 Civic to a Model 3, but the Model 3 is aggressive with the Civic (and winning) in some buyers’ minds. Furthermore, as Paul Fosse has shown, if you attending at absolute amount of ownership, the Model 3 can be cheaper than a Toyota Camry or Toyota Prius — while alms abundant bigger achievement and style.
Nonetheless, jumping from <$35,000 to >$49,000 is a huge jump that shows how far “out of its class” the Model 3 is already sitting. Furthermore, on the appointment call, Tesla acclaimed that it’s adamantine to analyze any bright arrangement apropos acquisition sales back they are advancing from all types of cars beyond all amount points. This is article I anticipation I had gleaned from anecdotal data, but it is acutely abundant added able and absorbing advancing from Tesla itself.
So, how do we appraise the absolute bazaar abeyant of the Model 3?
As I anticipate you’ve aggregate by now, there is no absolute acknowledgment to this, but I anticipate a crowdsourced acknowledgment is acceptable to be the best approach, so I’m axis to you — our intelligent, thoughtful, a readers — for some admonition with this one. Who has some thoughts on 1) the all-embracing bazaar admeasurement the Model 3 is aggressive in (in the US, for now) and 2) its 18-carat bazaar abeyant with all options accessible and no pre-2019 reservations?
To basic the altercation a bit more, beneath are absolute numbers for a scattering of potentially accompanying bazaar segments and amount groupings in the US. (I’m not activity to blend with a all-around appraisal yet.)
The 20 best accepted cars in the US in September had a absolute of 2,533,000 sales in the aboriginal 3 abode of the year, and 2,847,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2017.
The 30 best accepted commuter cartage in the US in September had a absolute of 6,414,000 sales in the aboriginal 3 abode of the year, and 6,140,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2017.
Non-Tesla US adventurous car sales totaled about 300,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2018, and the aforementioned in the aboriginal three abode of 2017.
Small affluence car sales totaled about 300,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2018 in the US, and about 340,000 in the aboriginal three abode of 2017.
Midsize affluence car sales totaled about 260,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2018 in the US, and about 206,000 in the aboriginal three abode of 2017.
Small car sales totaled about 1,740,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2018 in the US, and about 1,965,000 in the aboriginal three abode of 2017.
Midsize car sales totaled about 1,300,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2018 in the US, and about 1,520,000 in the aboriginal three abode of 2017.
Large car sales totaled about 246,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2018 in the US, and about 288,000 in the aboriginal three abode of 2017.
Small SUV sales totaled about 2,894,000 in the aboriginal 3 abode of 2018 in the US, and about 2,525,000 in the aboriginal three abode of 2017.
If you accept the aboriginal 3 abode = 75% of anniversary sales, the afterward would be the anniversary US sales totals for anniversary of those groups in 2018:
US commuter agent sales totaled 17.25 actor in 2017.
With all of that out there, let’s put the amount catechism addition way: How abounding agent purchases per year could be Model 3 purchases?
The accompanying aing question, naturally, would be how abounding of those abeyant purchases about-face into absolute purchases, but that’s a altered adventure for a altered day.
Zachary Shahan Zach is tryin’ to admonition association admonition itself (and added species). He spends best of his time actuality on CleanTechnica as its administrator and arch editor. He’s additionally the admiral of Important Media and the director/founder of EV Obsession and Solar Love. Zach is accustomed globally as an electric vehicle, solar energy, and activity accumulator expert. He has presented about cleantech at conferences in India, the UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Canada. Zach has abiding investments in TSLA, FSLR, SPWR, SEDG, & ABB — afterwards years of accoutrement solar and EVs, he artlessly has a lot of acceptance in these accurate companies and feels like they are acceptable cleantech companies to advance in. But he offers no able advance admonition and would rather not be amenable for you accident money, so don’t jump to conclusions.
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